Research

Aviation Week and Space Technology. .  June 13, 2005, “Good Start for SATS” (Small Aircraft Transportation System) – If supporters are right, less means more efficient use of airspace, airports and aircraft.   -- The SATS system is aimed at expanding the use of national airspace through new technologies to create affordable, point-to-point air travel.  Specifically, the SATS vision is to allow 4-10 seat passenger aircraft access to under-used rural and suburban airports, particularly in low-visibility conditions.  98% of our country population lives less than a 30-min. drive from any one of 5,400 small airports – which will be a major part of our integrated next-generation transportation system.  The NASA-led five-year project is partnered by the FAA, and the National Consortium for Aviation Mobility (NCAM).

Aviation Week and Space Technology.   June 2005.  According to a report by Boeing “Worldwide economic growth will average 2.9% a year, but market demand for commercial airplane services will more than double the world’s fleet by 2024.  That’s based on average annual growth rates of 4.8% for passenger traffic and 6.2% for freight.”  This growth will cause further congestion in our nation’s largest hub airports, increasing delays and causing passengers to seek out alternative means of transportation.  The map below shows the airports and metro areas most at risk.

AOPA magazine June 2005 – “Dawn of an era” – Here come the jets.  Eclipse Aviation has geared it’s production at a break even point of about 600 jets per year with an anticipated output closer to 1,000 units.  Eclipse designed its tooling to produce as many as 1,500 Model 500s yearly.  It is significant that a relatively few air-taxi operators are responsible for about half of the approximately 3,000 VLJ orders placed among all manufacturers. 

The FAA, Federal Aviation Administration, expects that 20% of business travel will be by small jets by 2015. 

Honeywell’s Aircraft Production Forecast sees $121 billion sales for new business jets through 2013.Recent studies undertaken by Honeywell in the general aviation segment found broad familiarity with emerging VLJs and indicated that a potential demand for up to 8,000 such aircraft over the next 10-15 years is feasible. Based on current aircraft specifications and pricing, purchase expectations were substantial, especially in the owner-flown segment of operators.

NetJets Europe reported that the company’s 600 or so customers booked more than 32,000 flights in 2004, with an average flight time of 1.4 hr.  – Aviation Week and Space Technology Feb 21, 2005.

Microjets (VLJ’s) are expected to cruise at Reduced Vertical Separation Minimum (RVSM) altitudes where all the airline aircraft are cruising, even though they will be flying at slower speeds.  This trend of more and more “incompatible” aircraft in the sky is going to complicate transformation of Air Traffic Management.  Aviation Week and Space Technology March 14, 2005. 

 This chart shows how the Pentagon plans to boost spending to meet the need for upgrades in the air traffic system. AW&ST Feb 28, 2005 pg 50

SATS research performed by Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University in Florida found that, when available, air travel is more cost-effective than highway or rail transportation for middle distance trips of 200–600 miles. Most of the traveling public, however, seem to regard small aircraft ownership and travel as a luxury rather than a necessity.

 Bruce Holmes, wrote: “Viable business concepts are emerging to fill the void being created by the exodus from airline travel,”  Holmes also stressed that the air-taxi model would be attractive for reasons beyond mere convenience.  It could also improve, rather than compromise, security against terrorism.  … This is because: a)  the vehicles aren’t big enough to represent either a viable target or a viable threat to the ground, b)  the distributed system does not have the dependencies of the centralized system, making multiple paths from origin to destination possible and practical much like in the internet.  A “distributed” system, with no main headquarters (or target zone), can respond to stress more resiliently than a highly centralized system can.   Free Flight, by James Fallow, page xviii.

Vern Rayburn, of Eclipse Aviation said that if the SATS/air –taxi model fully succeeded, it would create a market for some 50,000 small jets.  Free Flight, by James Fallow, page xxi.

Time-and–motion studies conducted by NASA in the late nineties found that for airline trips of 500 miles or less…your average speed from when you left your home to when you arrived at your destination is only fifty or sixty miles per hour.  Bruce Holmes calculated an average speed for his personal trips of 500 miles or less at 75 knots. For trips of 1,000 miles he averaged 125 knots and for trips of 2,000 miles, he averaged 200 knots.  Free Flight, by James Fallow, page 7 and page 75-76.

Bruce Holmes says “..More than 98 percent of the U.S. population lives within a thirty-minute drive of over 5,000 public-use landing facilities.  This infrastructure is an untapped national resource for mobility.”  Free Flight, by James Fallow, page 80

In the late nineties fuel additive companies stopped producing some of the ingredients necessary to distill 100LL fuel.  When the existing stock of additive runs out, some time between 2005 and 2010, that will be it for the fuel on which most current piston engines run.  Free Flight, James Fallow, pg 175.

In it’s fund raising presentations Eclipse estimated that the air-taxi market might amount to 30 million trips a year, within a decade.  That would be less than 10 percent of the projected airline total for that time, but it would still mean a fleet of 35,000 small jets.  This in turn would mean businesses to schedule the trips… Free Flight, James Fallow, pg 198.  

There are two reasons why people have not used air taxis much in the past, according to Patrick Margetson-Rushmore, chief executive of the small charter firm, London Executive Aviation. "Firstly, there is lack of knowledge - people have not thought about air taxis as an option," he said.   "Secondly is perception - September 11 has acted as a catalyst and people are looking for viable alternatives."

Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) of the VLJ can’t agree on what the light jet should be named. Jack Pelton, CEO and president of Cessna Aircraft, favors “entry-level jets,” while Rick Adam, CEO of Adam Aircraft Industries, prefers “personal jets,” and Vern Raburn, CEO of Eclipse Aviation likes “very light lights.” However, since insurers have been referring to them simply as “VLJs,” for “very light jets,” OEMs have now used the same term. They all agree on one other thing. Microjet, minijets, babyjet, compact-jet or Barbie-jet are names to avoid. Adam said he’s not particularly fond of the term “microjet” because the “public doesn’t like getting in small planes, thinking they’re not safe.” 

The hottest issue facing OEMs, owner/operators and Part 135 charter operators is insurance.  Senior underwriter Ann Thickey, from Global Aerospace, one of the world’s largest aviation insurers, warns OEMs that numerous pilots who have put down deposits for a VLJ will be told in the end they don’t have enough flight hours, training or type ratings—regardless  of what OEMs try to convince them. “A lot of pilots are going to realize that they’ve been drinking their own bath water…” she said. “All of the manufacturers claim they’re building the most efficient, most durable and most insureable VLJ—regardless of the fact that many of them haven’t progressed past a design sketched on paper.”  W. Brown & Associates Insurance, headquartered in Irvine, Calif., the underwriting arm for XL Insurance Specialty, anticipates taking a very cautious approach underwriting VLJs. We don’t plan to underwrite anyone’s VLJ until one year after production,” he said. “Cessna’s Mustang is the exception, but that’s with a six-month cautionary period at this point. “Aircraft won’t be insured until OEMs provide the insurance industry with solid training programs. --- -- “Behind the VLJ Frenzy”—What Insurers, OEMs and Charter Providers Are Saying           By Karen Di Piazza.  SEPTEMBER 2004                                                                                                                 -----After the writing of this article Global has agreed to underwrite Eclipse’s 500 Jet and they have approved their six-phase, curriculum-based factory-training program. However, they haven’t agreed to underwrite Adam’s A500 twin piston or their twinjet, the A700 AdamJet; they would consider it, but Adam hasn’t provided anyone with details of what their training program will entail.  

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